As always, the West, along with Israel and Turkey, appear to be fueling war dynamics in Syria. Inevitably it will spiral out of control. How is this in America’s interest, exactly?
A week ago Syrian Sunni rebels under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS launched a surprise attack on the government forces of President Bashar al-Assad, capturing over the last week most of the strategic provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, which had been at the heart of the ISIS insurgency during the early years of the Syrian Civil War. The timing is auspicious : Assad’s key allies — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have been seriously distracted and/or weakened over the last year.
Most specifically, Hezbollah had just signed a ceasefire with Israel days before the HTS attack and is spending much of its energy right now focused on its remaining elements and the political situation inside Lebanon. Russia has been assisting Assad with airstrikes over the last few days but it too, has limited resources due to its own war over the last two and a half years in Ukraine. Meanwhile the role of Turkey — whether direct or pulling strings — has also raised eyebrows. It is a NATO member, after all, and while the U.S. has no love lost for Assad, Ankara’s support for Al Qaeda inspired terrorists would be unhelpful to Washington. Or would it? Is Washington already stirring up trouble and if so, are our 900 troops in the country being placed further into harm’s way?
Here to walk us through this web of interests and traps is Professor Joshua Landis, who is the head of the Center for Middle East Studies and director of the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma. He is a recognized expert on Syria politics and war, and his new book: Syria at Independence: Nationalism, Leadership, and Failure of Republicanism will be published by the Arab Center for research and Policy studies this coming year.
More from Landis:
How is being in the Middle East at all in America's interest?
Excellent analysis as always